The Federal government and the Länder have decided last Wednesday a far-reaching relaxations. But this came too early? Experts have developed mathematical models for the spread of the Virus, believe that we can squander about to bring the epidemic under control, but still.
The Federal government and the Länder have decided last Wednesday to remove the Lockdown measures. Contact restrictions are in place, with minor relaxations, but businesses may soon open more than 800 square meters again, as well as opening plans for tourism and catering, for schools and leisure sports.
However, it remains a limitation important: The number Neuinfizierter may, within seven days, 50 per 100,000 inhabitants, not exceed – otherwise threaten regional again far-reaching measures to get the infections in check.
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Experts with the modeling of the Corona history to deal with these relaxations is critical. From the point of view of the infection researcher Michael Meyer-Hermann of the Federal and the Länder have decided to be early far-reaching relaxations. In the past few days, the number of new infections rose again, – explained the head of the Department of System immunology at the Braunschweig-based Helmholtz center for infection research, on Thursday in a press briefing at the Science Media centre.
Missed the opportunity to get lower Numbers to that contact tracing would be possible
This increase correlated in time with the previous Opening of the shops. Whether the reason is unclear, made Meyer-Hermann clearly. Also, to any delays in the transmission of the data to be seen, it would have been from his point of view is better to consult the end of this week or next week on the loosening of the Anti-pandemic measures.
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“I don’t know how bad this is,” said Meyer-Hermann. From his point of view, we have, however, “likely to be a Chance vergeben", to come in a relatively short period of time – until the middle or end of may – so low in Numbers that we can open had.
Viola pries man, head of the research group theory of neural systems at the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization in Göttingen, sees this in a similar way. She welcomed it, to give the regions responsibility. But this could only work if the mobility between the regions remain low. For this you would need to have the control of whether the Virus is being brought in, said praised the man. Otherwise, a County, the give a lot of effort to feel some of the consequences, when in the neighboring district of the infections remain high get.
In yesterday’s press briefing, the Max Planck researcher said that the most useful value, you could focus on is not 50 or 30 or 100 new infections per 100,000 people, "but really, the Null", in order to get a stable Situation. "This upper limit is now defined, is certainly helpful in this way. But I think that everyone should be exactly clear about whether the goal is chronic, with a mean number of new infections continue. Or whether the goal should be to really Covid-19-free-to-werden", argues man Pries.
Only in the latter case, you could drive without a care, again, the social life of high. This is also useful if you consider the collateral damage – for example, economic, thinks of extolling man.
"In the short term, strong suppression is economically less damage than permanent Bremse"
The scientist that claims to do this also with economists in the conversation argued with a scenario of 90 percent of the Economy. "What seems to be the case in China, if you are learning the Economist and other scientists there believed, that, although all of them are loosening again – people can do what they want – and they don’t do it because they have no confidence."
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This can be a Problem, because you don’t be after the Lockdown back at normal, but maybe 90 percent, the Max Planck scientist. It is not in the long term could lead to lower economic performance, if the people would have full confidence that the Virus is in the handle and you don’t want to invest therefore. Shorter restrictions on the economy were less of a turn problematic as a Trend. "That is why, I think, a very important thing that you weigh the short-term and long-term damage to each other."
"It is, I think, economically relatively well to predict that a short-term strong suppression causes less damage economically than a permanent Bremse", the Helmholtz scientists Michael Mayer-Hermann says.
Until the end of April, the four research societies Max-Planck – and Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, and the Helmholtz and Leibniz Association published a joint position paper. In a short version of the same you made it clear: “The Situation is not stable, even a small increase in the reproduction number would lead us back into a Phase of exponential growth. Therefore, the reproductive number must be kept up to the availability of a vaccine under 1.“
Nevertheless, the experts speak even a little confident. It seems the people had become in the course of lock downs, be even more cautious and effective contagion would be avoided. "This gives me a total of a relatively optimistisch", pries man says.
Models play an important role in order to understand relationships better
Mayer-Hermann, the Corona charged Situation by using an agent-based model. Each individual is shown. The model had the disadvantage, says Meyer-Hermann, that it is difficult to describe the whole of Germany. However, it should be perfectly suitable, "to go to the County level, where we must, then, perhaps at the level of a few hundred thousand agents expect."
The Team of Viola pries guy at the Max-Planck-Institut has calculated two scenarios of how the corona virus will spread in the coming weeks. Also effects can be considered measures.
Modelling played an important role in order to understand the relationships better, Mirjam Kretschmar, Professor of the University medical center convinced of Utrecht in the Netherlands, and scientific Director for mathematical disease modeling. They are, however, also to bear in mind: "But you must also see that all models have their limitations and ask yourself, what is the meaning of this step of the model calculation to interpret."
A very good sign, however, is that the models of the Max-Planck – and Helmholtz-have led scientists to similar conclusions. "If you have several models that come to about the same result, then you know at least that one has included the essential factors in the models and that the differences between the models may be less important for the answer to this question."
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