The measures of the Federal government to mitigate the pandemic impact. Would be Fatal now to loosen so again, researchers say. You sketch three scenarios for Germany.
While the first countries have already dared to loosen its measures to contain the Coronavirus, warns the Federal government nor the patience – before Easter it is not going to at least think about it.
Scientists from the Helmholtz centre for infection research (HZI) in Braunschweig to give the Federal government legal. Keep a loosening of restrictions in Germany at this time is dangerous. Instead, they argue for more stringent measures.
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The research team led by physicist Michael Meyer-Hermann simulates the impact of various conditions on the development of the pandemic in Germany. The spread of the pathogen accurately describe, and use the scientists to make a model of mathematical epidemiology, the have expanded to include the specific components of Sars-CoV-2. Their results have now been published in a publication.
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Measures show effect
The researchers are interested mainly in the basic reproduction number of Covid-19. This indicates how many people are infects a of Infected, on average, and thus how quickly the Virus is spreading. The number drops to below one, the virologists, that the pandemic is contained.
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The researchers from Braunschweig found that the reproduction number could decline since the beginning of the measures in Germany to a value of 1. “Our data suggest, however, that this is not a Plateau,” says Meyer-Hermann. “The value has fallen since the completion of the manuscript in the last three days more, and this trend seems likely to continue.” The strict measures were all having their effect.
Three scenarios are possible
The researchers also have data on the number of boarded and intensive medically supervised patients in your Model is integrated, so you can say the burden for the German health care system in various scenarios in advance.
In the case of a reproduction number of 1, as it is currently, in most States, reached, Germany, on a whole year, therefore, permanently to 10,000 intensive care beds with Covid-19-patients occupied.
According to Meyer-Hermann, our health system can cope with that just yet, but this also would mean that after one year, only about one percent of the population with Sars-CoV had been infected 2. “Immunization of the entire population is not accessible, in compliance with the capacities of the health system,” says Meyer-Hermann.
The time-dependent reproduction number of the Virus hatches, however, the value of a week ago or ten days ago, would be the number of intensive care patients within a few months, in the hundreds of thousands, and the health care system would be completely overwhelmed.
So the Virus could be in one to two months stop
The reproduction number could be in contrast to values well below 1, would have stopped the spread of the Virus, according to the calculations of the researchers within one to two months. Therefore, you require to reinforce the restrictions in the social life in the short term, even.
“The more we can reduce the reproduction number, the faster the emergency situation is over, what speaks perhaps even more stringent measures,” says Michael Meyer-Hermann.
Easing of the measures "wrong Signal"
A relaxation of the measures to give it the fight against the Virus, instead, only more in length, and is therefore also from an economic point of view does not make sense, if not counterproductive.
“We needed the officially prescribed limitations, to direct the attention of the people to the danger posed by the epidemic. To loosen now, at this time is the wrong Signal,“ says Meyer-Hermann.
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